Iris Energy (IREN) Stock Analysis | $9.7B Microsoft Deal, AI Cloud Pivot & Massive Rally Explained
Description
Good morning traders and investors — I’m Norbert B.M., and welcome back to Wealth Dome, where we build and protect wealth.
Today we’re breaking down one of the most surprising stories in the AI and infrastructure world — Iris Energy (IREN).
Formerly a Bitcoin mining company, Iris has transformed into a full-fledged AI data center operator, powered by renewable energy and secured by a $9.7 billion multi-year deal with Microsoft (MSFT).
The result? A stock that’s up nearly 480% year-to-date.But is this sustainable — or is IREN getting ahead of itself?
Let’s dive in 👇
⚙️ From Bitcoin to AI Cloud: The Pivot
Originally focused on crypto mining, Iris Energy now uses its vertically integrated power infrastructure to host large-scale GPU clusters in renewable-rich regions.
This transition has shifted IREN from volatile mining profits to high-margin, recurring cloud revenue.
“It’s not a crypto story anymore — it’s an AI infrastructure story.”
💰 The $9.7B Microsoft Partnership
This is the crown jewel of Iris’s business pivot.
* Contract Size: $9.7B over five years
* Partner: Microsoft (MSFT)
* Purpose: Deliver and operate NVIDIA GB300 GPU clusters for AI and data workloads
* Revenue Backlog Visibility: Extremely high — rare for a company of this size
“AI startups dream of this kind of guaranteed revenue stream.”
This deal effectively transforms Iris Energy into a miniature AI cloud provider with a powerful client base and long-term cash visibility.
📊 Financial Snapshot (Q1 2026 Guidance)
MetricValueChange (YoY)Revenue$240M+335%Net Income$384MHuge turnaroundNet Margin160%ExceptionalFree Float Shares254M—Long-Term Debt$60MManageablePE Ratio31Reasonable for growthP/S Ratio32High but justified by backlog
This is massive growth, but remember — markets move on expectations, not just results.
📉 Valuation vs Peers
CompanyPE5-Year AvgCommentIris Energy (IREN)31−2.7From loss to profitBitmain−35696Volatile mining modelApplied Digital (APLD)−44−124UnprofitableMarathon Digital (MARA)65200+Still speculative
IREN clearly leads its group — but the valuation premium reflects that.
“Investors are paying for the AI narrative — not the current numbers.”
⚠️ Execution Risks
* Speed of buildout: Any delay in data center expansion could hurt sentiment.
* Power access: Large-scale GPU clusters require reliable, renewable energy.
* Supply constraints: NVIDIA GPU shortages could slow deployment.
* Overvaluation: Traditional DCF puts IREN closer to $25/share, far below its current $69/share.
“The story is strong — but the stock price may be sprinting ahead of reality.”
📈 Technical Analysis
* Daily Chart: Above 50-day MA, pierced 20-day recently — short-term correction likely.
* Weekly RSI: 83 (massively overbought)
* MACD: Bearish divergence — potential correction setup.
* Support Levels: $60 → $50 → $35 major long-term zone
* Resistance: $70–$75 range
“The chart suggests a healthy correction is coming. Long-term bulls should wait for re-entry near $35–$45.”
🧭 Trading Viewpoint
* For Swing Traders: Avoid chasing — wait for RSI reset below 50.
* For Long-Term Investors: Hold small position; scale in during 20–30% dips.
* For Risk-Takers: Watch $21–$25 as the deep value accumulation zone.
“If IREN revisits the $20s — that’s where smart money steps in again.”
💬 Personal Take
“I hold a small position in IREN, but I’m waiting for a deeper correction before adding. Growth stories like this often retrace hard before the next run.”
📊 Mentioned Stocks
IREN, MSFT, NVDA, BITF, APLD, MARA, BTCUSD
🔗 Relevant Links
* Iris Energy Investor Relations
💡 Final Thoughts
Iris Energy has done what few crypto miners could — reinvent themselves into AI infrastructure providers.The fundamentals are improving, but valuation risk remains high.
“Be patient. AI and energy convergence is real — but let the market give you a discount.”
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